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"We're going to see our first rise in headline inflation after 12 consecutive months of falling prices," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.5%, supported by gains in the luxury sector (.STXLUXP) after China lifted a ban on group tours in the United States and other key markets. In currency markets, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, eased 0.4%. "We've got $1 trillion coming down the pipe over the next three months," eToro's Laidler said. "Any sign that markets are absorbing that well, which we got the first signs of yesterday, will be very well taken."

Persons: Ben Laidler, Laidler, Germany's DAX, Rodrigo Catril, We've, eToro's Laidler, Bond, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Reuters, CAC, FTSE, Wall, National Australia Bank, U.S, Treasury, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, China, United States, Europe's, Europe, CHINA, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Morning Bid: Wall St set for rebound after worst week since March
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. "The sell off in back-end rates is concerning," Anshul Sehgal, Goldman Sachs co-head of U.S. rates trading, said in an emailed note to clients. Futures on Wall Street , , are signaling a slightly higher open, although European equities (.STOXX) are shedding around 0.4% - playing catch up following a late drop on Wall Street on Friday - and Asian shares were a fraction lower on Monday. The more upbeat Wall Street mood might be because a tightening in financial conditions could give the Fed another excuse to ease off the pedal when it comes to further tightening or even cut rates sooner. Meanwhile, the number of companies reporting earnings is set to slow sharply, with 33 S&P 500 (.SPX) and 55 STOXX 600 companies reporting this week, according to Deutsche Bank.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Samuel Indyk, Sehgal, Goldman Sachs, Goldman's Sehgal, June's, Bowman, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Wall, Fed, CPI, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Tyson Foods, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The dollar touched a four-week peak against major peers on Thursday after upbeat labour market data a day earlier, while sterling remained lower after the Bank of England downshifted to a smaller 25 basis point hike. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, rose as high as 102.84, its highest level in four weeks. Earlier, the currency fell to a four-week low of 143.89 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar similarly earlier slid to its lowest since end-June at $0.6063, having tumbled more than 1% on Wednesday. "The U.S. dollar actually strengthened against most other currencies (and) there were risk-aversion trades across all the asset classes."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lefteris Farmakis, nonfarm, Fitch, Sterling meanwhile, BOE, John Leiper, Tina Teng, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Nick Macfie, Andrew Heavens, Giles Elgood Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Barclays, Titan Asset Management, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, CMC Markets, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Beijing

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The dollar scaled a four-week peak against major peers on Thursday after upbeat labour market data a day earlier, while sterling edged lower ahead of an expected rate hike from the Bank of England. "Rate differentials continue to move in favour of the dollar as U.S. rates have been firmer than European rates," Christensen added. Against a stronger dollar, sterling fell 0.1% to $1.27. "An outside bet of a 50-basis-point hike would be a surprise and would lead to a stronger pound," Christensen added. "The U.S. dollar actually strengthened against most other currencies (and) there were risk-aversion trades across all the asset classes."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Niels Christensen, Christensen, nonfarm, Fitch, BOE, Nordea's Christensen, Tina Teng, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Nick Macfie Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, CMC Markets, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Beijing

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."

Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S

☆ Dollar bounces from 15-month low on strong core U.S. retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. Headline U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, with a 0.2% increase during the month. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. The dollar rose 0.10% against the Japanese yen to 138.83, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.

Persons: ”, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, Klaas Knot, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, U.S, Headline U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of America, Norwegian krone, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Britain, Japan, Norwegian, London

[1/2] U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come."

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Scotiabank . Markets, Sterling, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Swiss, greenback, Swiss National Bank, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, Norwegian, Swedish, Swiss, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2913 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1012, the Australian dollar steadied at $0.6680, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6198.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Sterling, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Scotiabank . Markets, New York Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, . U.S, Japan, China's

The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."

Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England

☆ Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. "Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan's yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13. "The FX market is taking more of a 'one-dimensional approach' to trading the British disease," said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets. The Chinese yuan last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market , a day after falling about 0.4%.

Persons: payrolls, Brian Daingerfield, Lorie Logan, Brad Bechtel, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, Bitcoin, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, David Holmes, Mark Potter, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, NatWest Markets, Fed, Dallas, FX, Jefferies, of England, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, London, Singapore

☆ Bitcoin hits 13-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hit its highest level in 13 months on Thursday rising as much as 3.28% to $31,500. The world's largest cryptocurrency has recently found support due to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock - the world's largest asset manager - to launch a U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Nasdaq refiled its application to list BlackRocks's ETF according to a filing made public on Monday after the U.S. securities regulator had reportedly raised concerns over initial filings. Reporting by Samuel Indyk, editing by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Samuel Indyk, Alun John Organizations: BlackRock, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar holds near 7-month high vs yen on policy split; Swedish crown record low
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Samuel Indyk | Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022. The ministry of finance and BOJ intervened in the currency market last autumn when the dollar strengthened beyond 145 yen. “They’re expressing confidence that a faster rate of QT is going to deliver a stronger crown and I think that’s a bit unproven,” ING’s Turner said. The dollar added 0.1% to 7.2492 yuan in the offshore market, taking it close to the previous day’s 7-1/2-month low of 7.2694. The Russian rouble weakened past 87 against the dollar to a 15-month low, hampered by domestic political risk concerns after an aborted mutiny over the weekend.

Persons: Florence Lo, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, “, BOJ, ”, Chris Turner, ING’s Turner, hasn’t, Russian rouble Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, ING, Reuters, People’s Bank of, Citi Locations: U.S, there’s, Spain, tomorrow’s, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s, People’s Bank of China, Russian

It overtook Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 9%, in late May for the first time this year. In dollar terms, the STOXX 600 (.STOXXD) is still lagging, having gained 11.3% in 2023, while the euro is up 1.1%. "Relative to the U.S., European equities are looking less interesting and attractive," said Bernie Ahkong, co-chief investment officer at fund manager UBS O'Connor Global Multi-strategy Alpha. The euro zone economy was in technical recession in the first quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed last week. "But Europe looks even more unattractive than the U.S., because the temporary good data from Europe is really going to turn."

Persons: Europe's, Bernie Ahkong, UBS O'Connor, Ahkong, Geoffroy Goenen, Candriam, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, Hani Redha, Alex Richardson Organizations: UBS, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, U.S, Bank of America's, Eurostat, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China, PineBridge, United States

☆ Euro advances, surges to 15-year peak vs yen, after ECB lifts rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The ECB lifted rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, to 3.5%, the highest in 22 years. "There were hawkish elements in the latest ECB press conference, in particular the upwardly revised 2025 inflation forecasts. Versus the yen, the euro rose 1.2% to 153.52 , hitting 153.68 yen, the highest since September 2008, following the ECB decision. We have assumed for some time that the rate-cycle peak would be a negative for the dollar peak yields will bolster risk-taking and encourage investors to deploy capital away from the U.S.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mark Wall, Christine, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, Shaun Osborne, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rocky Swift, Shweta Agarwal, Emelia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, YORK, European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Scotiabank, U.S ., Reuters, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Bank of Japan, Toronto, New York, London

☆ Dollar ekes out gain after Fed hike hint; yen slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed's policy decision snapped a string of 10 consecutive rate hikes, but the projections, or dot plot, showed policymakers expect two more increases by the end of 2023. The euro was last flat versus the dollar at $1.0841 after touching a four-week high of $1.0865 on Wednesday. "Dollar-yen is at year highs and markets are increasingly beginning to talk about whether a further rise could trigger the BoJ to verbally and also effectually intervene in the FX market," Lomholt added. Japan's top government spokesperson said on Thursday that volatile currency market moves were undesirable and the authorities would take "appropriate" action as needed. The kiwi dollar sank 0.6% to $0.6172 after data showed New Zealand's economy slipped into a technical recession in the first quarter, putting further rate hikes in doubt.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Fed, Mohit Kumar, Kristoffer Kjær Lomholt, Lomholt, Sim Moh Siong, Samuel Indyk, Rocky Swift, Edmund Klamann, Sohini Goswami, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Jefferies, Bank of Japan, Money, ECB, Danske Bank, The Bank of, FX, People's Bank of China, Singapore, Thomson Locations: The Bank of Japan

☆ Major central banks not done with rate hikes just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Fed policymakers paused on its rate hikes since March 2022, and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%, its highest level since August 2007. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%. It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan remains the world's most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Jerome Powell, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Thomas Jordan, Kazuo Ueda, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ransinghe, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Heiko Becker LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, UNITED, Fed, Bank of Canada, BRITAIN, Bank of, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Japan, dovish, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, Bank of England, AUSTRALIA, SWEDEN, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation anxiety, yet S&P 500 keeps on running
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Samuel Indyk. Jerome Powell and his band of brothers on the Federal Open Market Committee will be sitting nervously. Money market traders are pricing around a three-in-four chance the Fed keeps rates on hold and a one-in-four shot of a 25 basis point hike. The S&P 500 (.SPX) closed on Monday at its highest level since April last year and is up well over 20% from its October 2022 low - a bear market rally or a new bull market? They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell, Jim Reid, they're, Reid, FOMC, Susan Fenton Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Reuters, CPI, Deutsche Bank, Money, People's Bank of China, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan

Monetary policy meetings of the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will set the tone for the week as markets seek clues from policymakers on the future path of interest rates. U.S. May inflation data is also out on Tuesday as the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting. "We are pretty much with consensus, expecting the Fed to stay put this week and a 25 basis point hike from the ECB," Nordea's Christensen said. The U.S. dollar index clocked a loss of nearly 0.5% last week, its worst weekly drop since mid-April, and was last down 0.1% at 103.43. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0768, having risen 0.4% last week, its first weekly gain in roughly a month.

Persons: Niels Christensen, Nordea's Christensen, " Christensen, Goldman Sachs, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Fed, ECB, Reuters, U.S, Reserve Bank of New, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Australia, People's Bank of China

☆ World shares muted, lira plunges to record low
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, Turkey's lira plunged to a record low against the greenback as authorities appeared to loosen stabilising measures after the government signalled a pivot to more orthodox policies. Spanish stocks (.IBEX) outperformed after shares in the world's biggest fast fashion company Inditex (ITX.MC) jumped almost 7% following first quarter results. That left the MSCI's broadest index of world shares (.MIWD00000PUS) up just under 0.1% but close to its highest level in 13 months reached on Monday. The dollar fell 0.1% against a basket of currencies, while the Turkish lira weakened over 7% to a record low of 23.17 per dollar, its biggest one-day sell-off since the 2021 crash. Bitcoin was trading at about $26,900, consolidating after a sharp rebound on Tuesday from as low as $25,350.

Persons: Ben Laidler, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, eToro's Laidler, Laidler, Solana, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Xie Yu, Robert Birsel, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, U.S, Federal Reserve, greenback, Nikkei, Fed, Wall, ICE, Treasury, Swissquote Bank, Data, Saudi, Brent, Texas, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, U.S, London, Turkish, China, Cardano, Polygon

☆ Greenback gains, Aussie jumps on RBA rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained against the euro and yen on Tuesday as investors focused on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates, while the Aussie jumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate increase. “We’re waiting to see if inflation is going to provide some upside surprises,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. Fed funds futures traders see the Fed as likely to then resume rate increases, with a 65% chance of an at least 25 basis-point increase in July, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The euro was last down 0.15% against the dollar at $1.0694 and the greenback gained 0.06% to 139.64 yen . ========================================================Currency bid prices at 3:00PM (1900 GMT)Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: “, ”, Edward Moya, we’re, Moya, Chris Turner, Samuel Indyk, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: YORK, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, New York Fed, Bank of, BoC, U.S, Canadian, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, London

The Aussie was last up 0.6% at $0.6656, after leaping as high as $0.6686, a level last seen on May 16. "For this week it will be wait-and-see mode for euro-dollar," Al-Saraf said, expecting euro-dollar to remain rangebound around 1.07. Meanwhile, the dollar was flat at 139.58 yen , while sterling fell 0.2% to $1.2410. Elsewhere, bitcoin attempted to find its feet around $25,700, after tumbling 5.1% on Monday in its biggest drop since April 19. Reporting by Samuel Indyk and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill and Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sean Callow, Chris Turner, Mohamad Al, Saraf, bitcoin, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Ed Osmond Organizations: Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Westpac, Bank of, BoC, Canadian, CENTRAL FOCUS, Market, Danske Bank, Fed, European Central Bank, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Debt ceiling hopes lift dollar to seven-week peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a seven-week peak on Thursday after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while investors scaled back Federal Reserve easing expectations. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. "If it gets worse, you're going to see a global hard landing and you will want to be owning dollars. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting.

Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The dollar index firmed 0.2% to 103.08, near Wednesday's seven-week peak of 103.12. Elsewhere, the dollar rose to a ten-week high of 137.89 yen , extending Wednesday's nearly 1% gain against the Japanese currency.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ Investors lift equity allocations to 5-month high - BofA survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Investors lifted equity allocations to a 5-month high but cash levels also increased to 5.6%, even as they remained worried about a possible credit crunch and inflation staying elevated, a Bank of America survey showed on Tuesday. Investors rotated portfolios into tech stocks, lifting allocations to the highest since December 2021, the euro area and equities, and cut exposure to commodities and utilities. "Long big tech", "short banks" and "short U.S. dollar" were the most crowded trades in May, while contrarian trades were "long REITs", "long banks", "long value stocks", "short bonds", "short tech" and "short growth", the survey found. A net 65% of respondents now expect a weaker economy, the most pessimistic in 2023, but most still expect the economy to experience a "soft landing". Reporting by Samuel Indyk; editing by Danilo MasoniOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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